Edmunds forecasts that 1,121,932 vehicles will be sold in the U.S. through January, representing a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.7 million.  

A SAAR of 16.7 million would mark a 29.8% decline in sales from the previous month, and a 1.4% decline from the same time last year. Reasons cited for the declines include a pullback in incentives and severe winter weather in many parts of the U.S.

“In January, automakers are expected to pull the reins in on the more generous incentive programs that we saw at the end of 2017,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds. “However, it’s typical to see a slowdown in at dealerships in January following the high-selling holiday months. This isn’t necessarily a solid indicator of the direction that the year is head in terms of overall sales.”

Breaking it down by manufacturer, Edmunds expects all manufacturers to experience a month-over-month decline in sales. Year-over-year, however, Toyota is expected to see the highest increase in sales, with sales expected to grow 7.7% year-over-year.

Similarlily, Toyota is also expected to gain the largest amount of market share in January, compared to the same time last year. GM is expected to see the second-highest gain in market share through the month.

Fleet sales are expected to account for 19.5% of vehicle sales.