Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher year over year in March, Cox Automotive reported April 7.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 215.3, an increase of 6.2% year over year and the highest point since the summer of 2023. Demand for used vehicles remains strong, according to auction data from Manheim, the largest wholesale marketplace in the U.S. Values increased 1.4% during March, a jump well above long-term norms, and are 2.3% higher than at the start of the year.
“As soon as this year began, prices at Manheim started moving higher as dealers anticipated strong demand from higher tax refunds to consumers,” said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, in a news release. “Sales conversion rates, a clear sign of demand, were higher than in 2025 for every week but one in Q1, and vehicle value trends at auction show we are well ahead of last year and where we would normally be during a spring bounce in the wholesale markets. We thought we’d see some impact from the conflict in the Middle East, and that may still happen. But right now, the data is clear: used-vehicle demand is healthy, and inventory levels are relatively tight.”
Wholesale Prices and Demand Stay Strong in March
Wholesale pricing strengthened in March, with Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices for the Three‑Year‑Old Index rising 2.2% for the month, slightly more than is typical for this time of year. MMR retention averaged 100.5%, essentially flat year over year and up 0.2 percentage points from February, indicating a seasonally normal but firm pricing environment as the spring selling season progressed.
Demand signals remain strong at Manheim, with sales conversion reaching 68.2% in the most recent measure. That result was 4.6 percentage points higher than the most recent three‑year average for March and 5.5 percentage points higher than the revised-higher February rate (62.7%), pointing to strengthening buyer activity and continued competition for available inventory in the wholesale lanes.
Used Electric Vehicles Sets Sales Record at Wholesale in Q1
Electric vehicles (EVs) showed notable strength at Manheim during the first quarter, outperforming long‑term expectations, indicating healthy demand for used EVs. EV pricing and activity remained firm through March, with values rising alongside the seasonal spring increase. Rising gas prices may have boosted demand last month, as dealers pursued potential opportunities with used EVs, which are notably more affordable than new EVs.
EV availability at Manheim also improved in Q1 as more off-lease EVs were moved into the auction lanes. In fact, the wholesale volume of EVs at Manheim set a record in Q1, with nearly 37,000 units sold. Initial retail sales estimates for used EVs were strong as well. Cox Automotive’s analysis suggests more than 100,000 used EVs were sold in Q1, the second-best result behind only Q3 2025, when buyers were hurrying to secure soon-to-expire government-backed sales incentives.
The growing EV share reflects an increasing flow of off‑lease vehicles back into wholesale channels, as many lessees remain unlikely to purchase vehicles priced above market value at lease end. Lenders have been absorbing these valuation adjustments gradually, helping the wholesale market digest the increase in used EVs. As additional off‑lease EVs return in the coming quarters, Manheim expects EV activity to continue rising, further solidifying its role within the wholesale ecosystem.
Retail Used-Vehicle Market Had Momentum in Q1
Retail conditions for used vehicles strengthened in Q1 2026 as the spring selling season arrived, with healthy consumer tailwinds that helped push Manheim values higher. Higher‑than‑average tax refunds helped activate pent‑up demand, pushing used retail sales about 2% above year‑ago levels during Q1.
Meanwhile, inventory tightened meaningfully, with days’ supply falling below 40 in March. It was the lowest point in 2026 and down from year-ago levels. Leaner inventory supported firmer pricing at retail for used vehicles, particularly for high‑demand models, with retail list prices for popular three‑year‑old vehicles running about 2% higher than last year and above typical seasonal trends. While affordability constraints remain a limiting factor for many buyers, the combination of steady demand and constrained supply helped keep used-vehicle retail pricing firm through the first quarter and kept buying activity healthy at Manheim.
Used and Wholesale Vehicle Market Forecast and Outlook for 2026
Cox Automotive’s 2026 used‑vehicle outlook remains mostly unchanged following the first‑quarter update, reflecting a stronger‑than‑expected start to the year offset by a softer second‑half view.
Total used‑vehicle sales are still forecast to decline 1% year over year; however, the used‑vehicle retail sales forecast was revised higher in the Q1 update to 20.4 million units, up from 20.3 million previously. Stronger retail demand continues to be supported by new-vehicle affordability pressures that are pushing consumers toward used vehicles, while lower new‑vehicle sales are constraining trade‑in volumes and limiting supply to the used market.
Wholesale pricing is expected to follow a normal seasonal pattern for the remainder of the year, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast to rise about 2% by year‑end 2026, consistent with long‑term averages.
Although the index is running strong on a year‑over‑year basis, values are expected to peak as tax refund season concludes. A higher mix of used EVs in the second half of the year is expected to increase volatility, but overall wholesale price performance is projected to remain aligned with historical norms.
“As we move towards summer, we expect Manheim values to hold their ground with many more consumers yet to file their tax returns this year,” Robb added. “The end of March typically proves to be the ‘peak’ for price action at Manheim. The Middle East conflict could dampen the spirits of the U.S. consumer, but we just haven’t seen it yet. Our data is showing resiliency in the economy.”
