Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in June compared to May, while the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.5, representing a 6.3% year-over-year increase and a 1.6% rise above May levels, according to Cox Automotive.

The seasonal adjustment forced the index higher in the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell more than usual following the volatility induced by the tariff announcement. The non-adjusted price in June decreased 1.1% compared to May, which makes the unadjusted average price higher by 5.1% year over year.

“Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in a July 8 news release. 

“The Manheim index has generally been rising since last June, and we typically see the strongest changes for the year in the second quarter as the ‘spring bounce’ ends. As we move through the second half of 2025, it’s likely that some of the reported strength in the market tapers, as the year-over-year comparisons are tougher in the back half of the year. Even so, retail sales continue to run hotter than prior years, and off-lease supply into the market is still on a downward path, two factors which should be fairly supportive of higher values as we move onward.”

In June, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values declined for each week of the month, with the largest weekly decline occurring in the final week. In that final week, MMR values fell by only 0.6%, higher than weekly rates earlier in the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased 1.3%, higher than normally seen. Those same weeks delivered an average decrease of just 0.6% between 2014 and 2019, indicating depreciation trends were elevated and influenced by the volatility from the tariffs over the last quarter.

Over the month, daily MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.2%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values this month, yet they were higher than May levels. Against last year, valuation models were down by 0.1 percentage points (10 bps) for MMR retention, though they are higher than June levels in 2022 and 2023. The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.8%, an increase of over one percentage point against last month and higher than normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 53.1% in June over the last three years.

Prices Rise In Most Vehicle Market Segments

Almost all major market segments were higher for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in June, except compact cars. Compared to June 2024, the luxury segment rose the most for the fifth month in a row, increasing by 8.8%, with SUVs coming in second and higher by 6% over the last year. 

Underperforming the industry, mid-size sedans and trucks increased 2.8%, and compact cars showed the worst performance, down 0.1% against last year. All segments were higher than the previous month, with the luxury segment rising by 1.2% and the truck segment increasing by 1.1%. Compact cars and SUVs were both higher by 1%, while mid-size sedans rose 0.8% in the period.

Looking at the market by powertrain, electric vehicle (EV) values are showing significant gains compared to last year, partly due to the depressed values seen during the comparison period. Wholesale EV values experienced steep declines in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, reaching their lowest point since Q3 2021 in June 2024. Since then, EV values have rebounded, with year-over-year appreciation trends outpacing those of non-EVs for the past three months. In June, EV values were up 12.1% year over year, while non-EVs rose by 5.6%. Month over month, EV values increased by 1.5%, slightly ahead of the 1.4% gain for non-EVs.

Retail Used-vehicle Sales Were Down in June

Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in June were down 1.5% compared to May but up year over year by 2%. A used vehicle's average retail listing price increased 0.3% over the last four weeks.  

Using estimates of retail used days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates June ended at 45 days’ supply, unchanged from 45 days at the end of May but down one day from June 2024 at 46 days.

New-vehicle sales in June declined 4.2% from last year, and volume was down sharply month over month, falling 14.2% from an elevated level in May, a month that had continued to be influenced by the tariff enactment. The June sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 15.3 million, up 0.3 million from last year’s pace and lower than the 15.6 million level in May.

Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets declined 3.8% year over year in June, as a smaller increase in rental fleet sales was offset by continued weakness in government and commercial. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining new retail sales were estimated to be down 3% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 12.9 million, down from 13.4 million in May but up from 12.2 million last June. Fleet share was estimated to be 17.6%, down from last year’s 18.6% share.

Rental Risk Price and Mileage Results Were Mixed Against Last June

The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in June increased 7.6% year over year. Additionally, rental risk prices fell by 1.7% compared to May, falling slightly more than the wholesale market. Average mileage for rental risk units in June (at 47,900 miles) fell 3.1% for the month against last year’s level and was also lower against May’s levels, falling by 3.3% over the month.

Measures of Consumer Confidence Move in Different Directions in June

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased 5.5% in June, erasing some of the gain from May and much worse than the expected increase. Consumers’ views of the present and the future both declined, but the views of the future declined the most. Consumer confidence was down 4.9% year over year. Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months remained at the highest level since December and were slightly higher year over year. 

• The sentiment index from the University of Michigan jumped 16.3% in June to 60.7 after remaining unchanged in May. This increase was higher than expected and marked an increase from the earlier reading at the beginning of the month. The index was down 11% year over year. The underlying views of current conditions and future expectations improved, with future expectations improving the most. Expectations for inflation in one year decreased to 5% from 6.6%, and expectations for inflation in five years decreased to 4% from 4.2%. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved, but views of prices and interest rates both deteriorated. 

• Morning Consult's daily consumer sentiment index decreased 1.1% in June, reversing some of May’s increase and leaving the index up 5.8% year over year. 

• According to AAA, the national average price for unleaded gas increased 4 cents in June from the end of May to $3.18 per gallon, down 9% year over year but up 3.8% year to date.