
After volatile highs and lows during the last three years, the market should hit equilibrium in the second half of 2023.
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The total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots, both franchised and independents, across the U.S. stood at 2.33 million units at the end of November, about 4% higher than a year ago.
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Higher interest rates are constraining affordability, and the number of potential buyers for used vehicles is declining when comparing 2022 to 2021.
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All eight major market segments again saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year last month, with compact cars showing the smallest decline.
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Rising interest rates are taking some potential buyers out of the market.
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Most loan types saw loosening in October, but certified pre-owned loans loosened the most month over month and year over year.
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Higher interest rates are likely hurting used-vehicle demand because consumers can’t afford the higher monthly payments.
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CPO has been up and down this year as it’s affected by supply and demand, but it should end the year at 2.4 million.
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Only three of eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were higher year over year in September. The full-year Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down nearly 14% YOY, up from the second quarter’s revised forecast of a 6% decline.
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See how Cox Automotive scored when its earlier outlook met the economic and market realities so far this year.
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