The Cox Automotive Insights team looks at key industry trends ahead that overall point to a healthy year.
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Analysis: A big drop of 20% to 30%, as one report suggests, is highly unlikely. History tells us a decline of more than 10% is rare indeed.
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The average price paid for a new non-luxury vehicle in December 2021 was $43,072, slightly down from the record high set in November but still $900+ over sticker.
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With record-high prices, low incentives, and a higher interest rate, the estimated typical monthly payment increased to a new record high at $687, which was up 20.7% year over year.
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A larger mix of SUVs and pickups helped drive up prices in November, but November was also the sixth straight month of sales volume declines.
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New-vehicle inventory levels are still 63% lower than a year ago while the average transaction price hit another record.
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Double whammy: New-vehicle inventory falls below 1 million units in September while the average new vehicle price tops $45,000 for the first time.
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The lack of new-vehicle inventory is steering many dealers and consumers into the used-vehicle market, resulting in higher prices for both wholesale and retail used vehicles.
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But sales are declining as car shoppers face limited inventory, high prices and historically low incentives.
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Tight new-vehicle supply puts upward pressure on new-vehicle transaction prices. Affordability hits 10-year low in July.
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