Analysis: The actions of the UAW will reverberate through the larger auto business, but nowhere near what was experienced in April 2020. Sales into fleet could suffer in 4Q if a strike is wide and persists. Rental car companies may return to the used car market like they did in 2021 and 2022, driving prices higher.
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With sales slightly stronger than expected, tight supply, and prices at about 6% below last year, these factors are expected to prevent any substantial decline in wholesale prices through year-end.
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The average listing price of a vehicle remained above $47,000 since April, while the ATP of a new vehicle in July was $48,334 compared with $48,671 in June.
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All major market vehicle segments saw price declines year over year and all were down compared to the previous months, except for one.
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Wholesale supply has increased with weaker purchase activity in early July, yet it is otherwise normal for this time of year.
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The last several months have closely followed 2019 levels, the last normal year, which means dealers are balancing their inventory to the sales rate and keeping days’ supply steady even as total supply improves.
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Fleet sales have helped underpin the market improvement so far this year. Forecasts suggest fleet sales could increase by more than 40% year over year,
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The average price likely will stay relatively high since few new vehicles have been sold in recent years, and little leasing was done.
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Days' supply increased due to a slight weakening in sales toward month-end. Despite a decline in the average listing price, it remained above $47,000.
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Mid-Month Update: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was down 7% compared to the full month of May 2022.
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