For the full year, Cox Automotive estimates sales for used retail were down about 3%, curtailed by a constrained supply of newly used vehicles in the market.
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Cox Automotive welcomes a return to normalcy after four years of everything but normal, with nothing in the data suggesting vehicle market surges in any direction.
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Wholesale supply ended November at 30 days, up one day from the end of October and flat year over year.
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The total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles in November climbed 57%, or 925,000 units, from the same time a year ago.
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Supply chains have stabilized while market headwinds from high interest rates and high prices are muting sales.
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The overall used-vehicle inventory volume is still considered limited and has been stuck in the 2.2 million to 2.3 million range for the past four months.
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Since the labor actions started Sept. 15, the U.S. has ample inventory for now from the Detroit automakers that should keep steady supply through the end of the month. The all-important Ford F-150 had 97 days of supply at the start of October.
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Sales in Q3 are expected to surpass 3.9 million, a jump of more than 15% from the same timeframe one year ago.
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Analysis: The actions of the UAW will reverberate through the larger auto business, but nowhere near what was experienced in April 2020. Sales into fleet could suffer in 4Q if a strike is wide and persists. Rental car companies may return to the used car market like they did in 2021 and 2022, driving prices higher.
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All major market vehicle segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year in the first half of June.
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