Used-Car Values Show Signs of Slow Down

According to Black Book data, the average price of a used vehicle for model-years 2008-2012 overall dipped slightly during May, the beginning of a summer season that typically sees higher depreciation compared with spring levels. Average segment prices saw -0.4 percent depreciation in May compared with the previous month (+0.9 percent in April). Domestic cars changed -0.5 percent; import cars changed -0.9 percent; domestic trucks gained +0.5 percent; and import trucks changed -0.4 percent. Average pre-recession depreciation is historically between -1 percent and -2 percent monthly, and Black Book expects overall 2014 depreciation of -13.5 percent.

Full-size Passenger Vans led all segments with the strongest monthly retention at +2.5 percent, following by full-size cargo vans at +1.7 percent.

Compact Cars led all car segments with the strongest retention at +0.8 percent during May. Vehicles in this segment include the Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Chevrolet Cruze, Ford Fiesta, and Ford Focus. The average segment price at the end of May was $9,383, a -6.8 percent change from year-ago levels ($10,668).

Luxury-Level Cars led all segments with the highest depreciation at -1.5 percent during May. Vehicles in this segment include BMW 5-Series, Cadillac DTS, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, Hyundai Equus, Lexus IS250, and Infiniti M Series. The average segment price at the end of May was $20,190, a -15.5 percent change from year-ago levels ($23,882). Even though these change levels are greater than the remainder of the market, they fit within normal pre-recession depreciation levels.

Luxury SUVs led all truck segments with the highest depreciation on the month at -1 percent. Vehicles in this segment include the Cadillac Escalade, Mercedes-Benz G Class, Land Rover LR3 and LR4, Lexus LX 470, and Lincoln Navigator.

Opposite their Luxury counterpart, four of the top eight best-performing segments on the month were the full-size pickups (+0.6 percent), mid-size pickups (+0.5 percent), full-size SUVs (+0.2 percent) and the mid-size SUVs (+0.1 percent).

Ten of the 24 total segments finished May at no change in value or better, following April when 21 segments finished in positive change range. What’s more, eight of the nine segments with highest depreciation in May were car segments.

“As we’ve seen first-hand from the dealer comments collected by our survey personnel at wholesale auctions, the summer season is kicking in and there is less activity around filling the car lots right now,” said Ricky Beggs, editorial director at Black Book. “Many dealers will begin to prepare their inventory strategies for the incoming new model year in a few months, depicting higher depreciation between now and the end of the year.”

Here is the complete breakdown of Black Book-recorded May value changes of used cars (2008-2012):