There was a tremendous amount of activity within the wholesale market this past week, according to Black Book.
"We had the second highest number of vehicles adjusted over a weekly period since the week ending September 14, 2012, which was 26 weeks ago, a full half-year of time," noted Ricky Beggs, VP and managing editor for Black Book. "More than 2,350 vehicles were adjusted on average each day of the week. Not as surprising was the number of adjustments that were increases to the previously published values. At 63-percent increases we are now close to the levels of one year ago when it came in at 67 percent."
The average segment change for the cars at -$8 was the best level of change since the week ending May 4, 2012 which was also at a -$8 average change. And, with the trucks at -$7 overall, this was the first time since the week ending April 13, 2012 where both the cars and the trucks had single digit change levels at the same time.
The cars had five of the 10 segments increasing, led by the +$32 for the Near Luxury Level Cars and a solid +$23 on the Entry Mid-size Cars, now having increased for four consecutive weeks. Even on the declining slide, the Prestige Luxury Cars, at -$88 was only -0.35 percent of the segment value. One year ago, the cars had seven of 10 segments increasing and finished at +$6 overall.
This past week, six of the 14 truck segments were on the positive movement. The Full-size Pickups led the way at +$52, the most positive truck segment for the second week running. The Compact SUVs, at +$16, are on a positive moving trend now for the past five weeks, while the Compact Crossovers and the Cargo Minivans have both increased for three consecutive weeks.
"Since the beginning of the year, Black Book has been openly talking about how we feel 2013 will be a good and solid year in relation to used value retention and trending," Beggs said. "When looking at the last few weeks, the numbers are pretty solid. While expecting solid retention, we have also consistently said the level of retention would not be at those of 2012 and 2011."
Comparing the past week at -$8 and -$7 respectively for the cars and trucks, to the change levels of a full year ago, those market projections are right in line with the Black Book expectations. One year ago the cars were at +$6 and the trucks had nine of the fourteen segments increasing for a +$5 average change.
The title of this week’s video blog is “The Downward Trend."
"Looking at these numbers, there is less down than up, that is until you take a look at the movement in gas prices at the pump," Beggs said. "The past two weeks have brought gas prices down over -$0.07 where we are $0.12 below the year ago average. That’s the downward trend we all like to see."
View this weeks' Beggs on the Market video below:
In addition to the weekly data and insight Black Book offers, Black Book and Fitch Ratings teamed up to produce the first vehicle depreciation report, which will be planned as a quarterly distribution. This first report is important for dealers, remarketers and lenders, who are all looking to make profitable decisions on inventory and portfolio expansions. The report talks about how 2013 vehicle depreciation rates are projected to remain low but rise to the lower end of historical averages of around 15% annually. A higher amount of auto leases coming due in 2013 will squeeze lease residual rates down marginally from current levels, but not enough to impact auto ABS performance. To get a copy of the report send an e-mail to [email protected].